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Sunday, November 7, 2010

2010 FIFA World Cup - Why Italy's Group F Was the Real Group of Death

In every World Cup, analysts identify a Group of Death. This is supposed to be a tough group with at least three top teams. The design of such a group is such that a top team is guaranteed to go home. In the 2006 World Cup, the Group of Death consisted of Argentina, Holland, Ivory Coast, and Serbia and Montenegro. Three of those sides have a rich World Cup history, while the Ivory Coast had several top European-based players in their side. The 2010 edition saw Group G designated as the Group of Death, with Brazil, Portugal, Ivory Coast and Portugal.

Before the second round of group matches, Group G seemed to be the Group of Death, particularly after North Korea's gutsy performance. However, it is easy for a team to be "gutsy" without posing a threat to a team's defence - as Trinidad and Tobago demonstrated at the 2006 World Cup. North Korea turned out to be a weak pretender, while the Ivory Coast flattered to deceive, In the end, the real Group of Death was one that many wrote off as the easiest group.

Italy, Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand comprised the toughest group, not based on empty pre-tournament expectations, but on actual performance. One team went unbeaten in this group and failed to qualify, while a top team failed to qualify. Italy crashed out in their last match against Slovakia, while New Zealand collected three points from three games without defeat. Paraguay topped the group with only five points.

What made this group so tough was that everyone expected Italy to pound Slovakia after being forced into a corner. Unlike England, who had an easy game against a mediocre Slovenian side in Group C, the Slovakians came to play. There are a few reasons why Group F is my choice as the Group of Death.

1. Giant-killing

A top team should fail to qualify from a tough group. Italy, as defending champions, are far bigger fish than Ivory Coast, who were appearing in their second World Cup and did not get past the group stage before.

2. Exciting final round

In the final round of matches, all four teams in Group F had the chance to qualify or go out. Everyone had something for which to play. What made this more interesting was that cellar-placed Slovakia had an excellent chance to qualify if they beat Italy. That is exactly what happened. Paraguay, at the top of the group going into the final group game, knew that they needed to get at least one point to qualify.

3. Close finish

The final point analysis in Group F was as follows:

1. Paraguay - 5 points

2. Slovakia - 4 points

3. New Zealand - 3 points

4. Italy - 2 points

Few would have expected Italy to finish bottom of the group or New Zealand to play unbeaten throughout the group stage. That group F had two major surprises converted it from the weakest team into a group of death, where one slip-up could see you home - as the Italians discovered.

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